Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose
obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the
time his theorem - independently discovered a few years later by Pierre-Simon Laplace the
great French mathematician - was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance like dice and
cards. But its implications soon became clear affecting fields as diverse as medicine law and
artificial intelligence. Bayes' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can
lead to false positives causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to account for it
in court it has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical
applications. A cornerstone of rational thought Bayesian principles are used in modelling and
forecasting. 'Superforecasters' a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA analysts use
a Bayesian approach. And many argue that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool but a
description of almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of rationality.
Fusing biography razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history EVERYTHING IS
PREDICTABLE is a captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical
testing to artificial intelligence Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have
far-reaching consequences.
