Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose
obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the
time his theorem was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance like dice and cards. But its
implications soon became clear. Bayes' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening
tests can lead to false positives causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to
account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond
practical applications. A cornerstone of rational thought Bayesian principles are used in
modelling and forecasting. 'Superforecasters' a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA
analysts use a Bayesian approach. And many argue that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool
but a description of almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of rationality
and of the human brain. Fusing biography razor-sharp science communication and intellectual
history Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on
modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence Tom Chivers shows how a single
compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.
