A Waterstones Best Popular Science Book of 2023 'Delightfully clear and vivid to read...A
splendid book! Philip Pullman 'Absolutely fascinating' James O'Brien 'An exceptional book -
readable funny and more needed than ever' Dr Chris van Tulleken bestselling author of
Ultra-Processed People · Are you more likely to become a professional footballer if your
surname is Ball? · How can you be one hundred per cent sure you will win a bet? · Why did so
many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? · How do you prevent a nuclear war?
Ever since the dawn of human civilisation we have been trying to make predictions about what's
in store for us. We do this on a personal level so that we can get on with our lives
efficiently (should I hang my laundry out to dry or will it rain?). But we also have to
predict on a much larger scale often for the good of our broader society (how can we spot
economic downturns or prevent terrorist attacks?). For just as long we have been getting it
wrong. From religious oracles to weather forecasters and from politicians to economists we
are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Our job is to separate the good from the bad.
Unfortunately the foibles of our own biology - the biases that ultimately make us human - can
let us down when it comes to making rational inferences about the world around us. And that can
have disastrous consequences. How to Expect the Unexpected will teach you how and why
predictions go wrong help you to spot phony forecasts and give you a better chance of getting
your own predictions correct.
