"a fresh thorough and practicable book for anyone who wants to sharpen their macroeconomic
judgment structured in an easily accessible and insightful manner. It offers an invaluable
framework to better understand growth the financial sector and the key trends shaping the
global economy." -- Financial Times An essential new guide to navigating macroeconomic risk.
The shocks and crises of recent years--pandemic recession inflation war--have forced
executives and investors to recognize that the macroeconomy is now a risk to be actively
managed. Yet unreliable forecasting pervasive doomsaying and whipsawing data severely hamper
the task of decoding the landscape. Are disruptions transient and ephemeral--or permanent and
structural? False alarms are costly traps but so are true structural changes that go
undetected. How can leaders avoid these macro traps to make better tactical and strategic
decisions? In this perspective-shifting book BCG Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and
Senior Economist Paul Swartz provide a fresh and accessible way to assess macroeconomic risk.
Casting doubt on conventional model-based thinking they demonstrate a more powerful approach
to building sound macroeconomic judgment. Using incisive analysis built upon frameworks
historical context and structural narratives--what they call "economic eclecticism"--the book
empowers readers with the durable skills to assess continuously evolving risks in the real
economy the financial system and the geopolitical arena. Moreover the authors' more nuanced
approach reveals that the all-too-common narratives of economic collapse and decline are often
false alarms themselves while the fundamental strengths of our current "era of tightness"
become visible. With rational optimism rather than gloom Shocks Crises and False Alarms
speaks to the key financial and macroeconomic controversies that define our times--and provides
a compass for navigating the global economy. Rather than relying on blinking dashboards or
flashy headlines leaders can and should judge macroeconomic risks for themselves.
