This book develops new econometric models to analyze and forecast the world market price of
oil. The authors construct ARIMA and Trend models to forecast oil prices taking into
consideration outside factors such as political turmoil and solar activity on the price of oil.
Incorporating historical and contemporary market trends the authors are able to make medium
and long-term forecasting results. In the first chapter the authors perform a broad spectrum
analysis of the theoretical and methodological challenges of oil price forecasting. In the
second chapter the authors build and test the econometric models needed for the forecasts. The
final chapter of the text brings together the conclusions they reached through applying the
models to their research. This book will be useful to students in economics particularly those
in upper-level courses on forecasting and econometrics as well as to politicians and policy
makers in oil-producing countries oil importing countries and relevant international
organizations.
