The master thesis of Kevin Berk develops a stochastic model for the electricity demand of small
and medium-sized companies that is flexible enough so that it can be used for various business
sectors. The model incorporates the grid load as an exogenous factor and seasonalities on a
daily weekly and yearly basis. It is demonstrated how the model can be used e.g. for
estimating the risk of retail contracts. The uncertainty of electricity demand is an important
risk factor for customers as well as for utilities and retailers. As a consequence forecasting
electricity load and its risk is now an integral component of the risk management for all
market participants.
