This study systematically investigates the representation of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) in
large reforecast data sets of different numerical weather prediction models and evaluates the
role of WCBs for the onset and life cycle of Atlantic-European weather regimes. The results
emphasize the importance of accurate forecast of WCBs for sub-seasonal prediction on time
scales beyond two weeks and tie the low forecast skill of blocked weather regimes over Europe
to misrepresented WCBs.
