The war in Ukraine did not start on 24 February 2022. It began eight years earlier in eastern
Ukraine¿s Donbas region. In his new book Jakob Hauter investigates the escalation of violence
in the spring and summer of 2014. He demonstrates that contrary to popular belief the
pre-2022 conflict was not a civil war. Ukraine has been fighting a Russian invasion since the
armed conflict¿s very beginning. Hauter arrives at this conclusion based on a thorough review
of the digital open source information (DOSI) available on the Internet. He argues that social
science research needs theoretical and methodological innovation to operate in the abundant but
murky information environment surrounding the Donbas War and other conflicts of the social
media age. To address this challenge he develops an escalation sequence model which divides
the formative phase of the Donbas War into six critical junctures. He then combines the social
science methodology of process tracing with DOSI analysis to investigate the causes of these
critical junctures. For each juncture Hauter assesses the available evidence of domestic
causes and Russian interference reaching the conclusion that in most cases there is
convincing evidence that Russian involvement was the primary cause of armed escalation. ¿This
excellent meticulously researched book is important. Not only does it provide fresh insights
based on forensic analysis into the escalation of violence in Ukraine¿s Donbas region in 2014
it breaks new methodological ground: It shows how process tracing and the use of digital open
source information can be combined in a rigorous way to deal with the informational challenges
associated with conflict. Russiäs Overlooked Invasion brings much-needed transparency to an
opaque but vital subject.¿ ¿Ben Noble Associate Professor of Russian Politics UCL SSEES ¿Most
previous accounts of the war in Eastern Ukraine have not gone beyond generalities. Hauter uses
open source Intelligence for a forensic analysis breaking down the events leading to war into
six critical junctures in four of which Russia is shown to have been the primary actor.
Without Russia moreover there would have been no necessary progression through the six phases
and a containable conflict would not have become a hot war.¿ ¿Andrew Wilson Professor of
Ukrainian Studies UCL SSEES
