The present study is the result of the attempt to subject the socio-economic world of energy to
an analysis regarding a phenomenon called the 'Black Swan'. This concept has been made popular
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb who has become a widely cited point of reference ever since the
beginning of the financial crisis in 2007. The underlying assumption is that against commonly
held believe it is not a long chain of incremental and statistically relevant events that
constitutes history but a seemingly insignificant number of outliers or hence 'Black Swans'.
Consequently the study focuses on a critical examination of the strategic prediction models
used in the energy business today which are mainly based on driver based models. These models
try to predict future price and value chain developments ultimately searching for a strategic
direction. This study questions this approach by showing that time and again similar
predictions have been rendered obsolete by real developments. Based on the findings of this
historical analysis the study raises the question whether it is possible to draw any
practical conclusions for the future discussing methods which could provide protection from
'Black Swan' events.
