Following books by Malcolm Gladwell and Dan Ariely noted economics professor William L. Silber
explores the Hail Mary effect from its origins in sports to its applications to history
nature politics and business. A quarterback like Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers gambles with a
Hail Mary pass at the end of a football game when he has nothing to lose -- the risky throw
might turn defeat into victory or end in a meaningless interception. Rodgers may not realize
it but he has much in common with figures such as George Washington Rosa Parks Woodrow
Wilson and Adolph Hitler all of whom changed the modern world with their risk-loving
decisions. In The Power of Nothing to Lose award-winning economist William Silber explores the
phenomenon in politics war and business where situations with a big upside and limited
downside trigger gambling behavior like with a Hail Mary. Silber describes in colorful detail
how the American Revolution turned on such a gamble. The famous scene of Washington crossing
the Delaware on Christmas night to attack the enemy may not look like a Hail Mary but it was.
Washington said days before his risky decision If this fails I think the game will be pretty
well up. Rosa Parks remained seated in the white section of an Alabama bus defying local
segregation laws an act that sparked the modern civil rights movement in America. It was a
life-threatening decision for her but she said I was not frightened. I just made up my mind
that as long as we accepted that kind of treatment it would continue so I had nothing to lose.
The risky exploits of George Washington and Rosa Parks made the world a better place but
demagogues have inflicted great damage with Hail Marys. Towards the end of World War II Adolph
Hitler ordered a desperate counterattack the Battle of the Bulge to stem the Allied advance
into Germany. He said The outcome of the battle would spell either life or death for the
German nation. Hitler failed to change the war's outcome but his desperate gamble inflicted
great collateral damage including the worst wartime atrocity on American troops in Europe.
Silber shares these illuminating insights on these figures and more from Woodrow Wilson to
Donald Trump asylum seekers to terrorists and rogue traders. Collectively they illustrate that
downside protection fosters risky undertakings that it changes the world in ways we least
expect.
