An ambitious look at how the twentieth century’s great powers devised their military strategies
and what their implications mean for military competition between the United States and China
How will the United States and China evolve militarily in the years ahead? Many experts believe
the answer to this question is largely unknowable. But Zack Cooper argues that the American and
Chinese militaries are following a well-trodden path. For centuries the world’s most powerful
militaries have adhered to a remarkably consistent pattern of behavior determined largely by
their leaders’ perceptions of relative power shifts. By uncovering these trends this book
places the evolving military competition between the United States and China in historical
context. Drawing on a decade of research and on his experience at the White House and the
Pentagon Cooper outlines a novel explanation for how militaries change as they rise and
decline. Tides of Fortune examines the paths of six great powers of the twentieth century
tracking how national leaders adjusted their defense objectives strategies and investments in
response to perceived shifts in relative power. All these militaries followed a common pattern
and their experiences shed new light on both China’s recent military modernization and
America’s potential responses.
