EAN: 9783030286682

MATHEMATICS OF PLANET EARTH FORECASTING AND A...

The overarching aim of this open access book is to present self-contained theory and algorithms
for investigation and prediction of electric demand peaks. A cross-section of popular demand
forecasting algorithms from statistics  machine learning and mathematics is presented  followed
by extreme value theory techniques with examples. In order to achieve carbon targets  good
forecasts of peaks are essential. For instance  shifting demand or charging battery depends on
correct demand predictions in time. Majority of forecasting algorithms historically were
focused on average load prediction. In order to model the peaks  methods from extreme value
theory are applied. This allows us to study extremes without making any assumption on the
central parts of demand distribution and to predict beyond the range of available data. While
applied on individual loads  the techniques described in this book can be extended naturally to
substations  or to commercial settings. Extreme value theory techniques presented can be also
used across other disciplines  for example for predicting heavy rainfalls  wind speed  solar
radiation and extreme weather events. The book is intended for students  academics  engineers
and professionals that are interested in short term load prediction  energy data analytics 
battery control  demand side response and data science in general.

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