This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective
judgement about matters of fact interacting with subject experts or about matters of value
interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of
procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers
particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses
research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation calibration and
multi-criteria decision analysis often unaware of each other's developments.Chapters 2 through
9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts including the Classical Method for
aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions the issue of
validation in the Classical Method the Sheffield elicitation framework the IDEA protocol
approaches following the Bayesian perspective themain elements of structured expert processes
for dependence elicitation and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between
experts.Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or
decision makers including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions) and
three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of or in absence of any
uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting
issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of
experts.Finally the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches
are applied in practice including a food security case in the UK expert elicitation in health
care decision making an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US
ports risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries and
elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.
