EAN: 9783319277707

SPRINGERBRIEFS IN PHILOSOPHY BELIEF EVIDENCE ...

This work breaks new ground by carefully distinguishing the concepts of belief  confirmation 
and evidence and then integrating them into a better understanding of personal and scientific
epistemologies. It outlines a probabilistic framework in which subjective features of personal
knowledge and objective features of public knowledge have their true place. It also discusses
the bearings of some statistical theorems on both formal and traditional epistemologies while
showing how some of the existing paradoxes in both can be resolved with the help of this
framework.This book has two central aims: First  to make precise a distinction between the
concepts of confirmation and evidence and to argue that failure to recognize this distinction
is the source of certain otherwise intractable epistemological problems. The second goal is to
demonstrate to philosophers the fundamental importance of statistical and probabilistic methods
at stake in the uncertain conditions in which for the most part we lead our lives  not simply
to inferential practice in science  where they are now standard  but to epistemic inference in
other contexts as well. Although the argument is rigorous  it is also accessible. No technical
knowledge beyond the rudiments of probability theory  arithmetic  and algebra is presupposed 
otherwise unfamiliar terms are always defined and a number of concrete examples are given. At
the same time  fresh analyses are offered with a discussion of statistical and epistemic
reasoning by philosophers. This book will also be of interest to scientists and statisticians
looking for a larger view of their own inferential techniques.The book concludes with a
technical appendix which introduces an evidential approach to multi-model inference as an
alternative to Bayesian model averaging.

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