EAN: 9783319397559

UNCERTAINTY - WILLIAM BRIGGS GEBUNDEN

This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking 
considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling  which effectively
underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard
tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for
statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working
scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to
eliminate what has been referred to as the Cult of Statistical Significance. The book explains
the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics  though there are a handful of
mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out  starting with basic philosophy as
related to probability  statistics  and science  and stepping through the key probabilistic
ideas and concepts  and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that
standard methods  such as out-of-the-box regression  cannot help in discovering cause. This new
way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields ¿ probability  physics  biology 
the ¿soft¿ sciences  computer science ¿ because each aims at discovering cause (of effects). It
broadens the understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods to propose a Third Way of
modeling.

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