Eva Bernauer predicts civil conflicts based upon the political exclusion of identity groups and
their transnational links to external governments. The innovation lies in a simultaneous
consideration of three identities - ethnicity religion and class-based ideology - thus
extending previous studies with merely an ethnic focus. Most importantly such a perspective
implies a shift towards a society's unique three-dimensional identity setup upon which the
excluded population and their transnational links can be determined. The author presents
original data on the three-dimensional identity setup for 57 countries and introduces a formal
model where rebel leaders strategically use identities to garner the support of the population.
Key quantities of interest such as the largest excluded subgroup or the number of identity
links to external governments are tested in several quantitative analyses as predictors for
the onset of civil conflicts. The author shows that there is an added valueof extending the
mere ethnic perspective to also encompass religion and class-based ideology.
