EAN: 9783954890590

ANCHOR COMPACT HOW TO ANALYZE AND COMPARE SCE...

Right now  our energy system is highly dependent on fossil sources. This dependency causes two
major problems: First  it causes the scarcity of these non-renewable energy sources  and
climate change. There are two alternatives to fossil energy sources that are on the one hand 
nuclear energy  and on the other hand  renewable energy sources. The process of nuclear energy
is fascinating for the energy outcome of one kilogram of uranium equals the stored energy of
about 3.000 tons of coal. Nuclear energy can reduce the problems that cause climate change for
the process is carbon neutral but  it leads to several other problems as nuclear proliferation
incidents  and the unsolved problem of waste disposal. Renewable energy sources are carbon
neutral  and by definition renewable  and therefore  they could solve both major problems of
the energy sector. Right now  the drawbacks are at first that most of them are not competitive
and need to be subsidized by governments  and second  the technical challenge to store the
produced energy. It is easy to understand that the future of the energy sector is highly
uncertain  and that under these circumstances  tools are of no use as far as they are
extrapolating past trends. In the last years  several energy scenarios have been conducted in
order to display the major uncertainties. It is not surprising that the results are strongly
varying  and therefore  the results lead to the question of the characteristics and the quality
of the scenarios. But  there has been no analysis of the characteristics and the quality of
energy scenarios so far. However  the author analyzes these in this study. The author begins
with a short introduction about the history of scenarios  and continues with the development of
a general framework of the scenario development process. Further  he lists its possible
variations. The scenario typology that consists of 15 variables that can be used to examine the
characteristics and the quality of scenarios is then applied at a total of 5 scenarios. The
sample of scenarios was chosen to display the broad range of different scenario developers. It
consists of the DESERTEC scenario of a charitable trust  the EU-Roadmap 2050 of a political
institution  the Greenpeace [R]evolution of an NGO  the World Energy Outlook of an
intergovernmental institution  and the Shell Energy scenarios of a company that deal within the
energy sector.

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